The Indian rupee dropped to its lowest level since March 13, 2025, on July 30 at 87.44 to the US dollar.

Throughout the day, it continued to slide after opening at 87.12.

Why Did the Rupee Fall?

The United States may slap 20–25% tariffs on Indian goods, according to hints made by US President Donald Trump.

That is a larger rate than what was provided to nations like Japan, the UK, and the EU.

Trump acknowledged that the trade agreement is not yet final even though he referred to India and Prime Minister Modi as "friends."

Why Is This a Big Deal?

Such tariffs may increase the cost of Indian exports to the United States.

That might result in less demand for exports, which would be detrimental to India's economy and trade balance.

The rupee declined as a result of the market's uneasy reaction.

What Does the RBI Do?

Reports state that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken a little step to stop the rupee from depreciating further.

However, given the uncertainty in the world, they are not anticipated to actively support the rupee.

Rather than completely reversing the slide, the RBI is probably going to attempt to reduce volatility.

India-US Trade Deal Status

Despite several rounds of negotiations, a deal between the US and India has not yet been reached.

As the tariff break comes to an end, Trump's reciprocal tariffs (20–25% on Indian goods) will go into effect on August 1.

By September or October, both parties want to complete the first section of a bilateral trade agreement (BTA).

In mid-August, a U.S. group will travel to India for additional discussions.

"India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country....over the years...you just can't do that," Trump said.

Pressure of Crude Oil

The price of Brent crude oil increased to $72.54 per barrel, the highest level in five weeks, further compounding the rupee's problems.

India imports a lot of oil, thus rising crude prices make imports more expensive and devalue the rupee even more.

Oil Prices Rise Due to Trump’s Russia Warning

The price of oil rose more than 3% and remained high at $71.76 a barrel.

Why? because Trump threatened to impose penalties on Russia unless it ended the war in Ukraine within ten to twelve days.

The international oil market may see supply shortages as a result of these sanctions, which might affect both Russia and the nations that purchase its oil.

Price increases occur when the supply of oil is jeopardized, and that is what happened.

How This Affects India and the Rupee

Since the majority of India's oil is imported, rising costs require more dollars to purchase.

As demand for the dollar increases, this further devalues the rupee.

Outlook for Rupees

In the near future, Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities predicts that the rupee would fluctuate between 86.45 and 87.25.

This range represents ongoing pressure from trade tensions as well as global oil prices.

Rupee Hits 4-Month Low Amid Fears of Trump-Era Tariff Return

Why Did the Rupee Fall?

Author: Anushka Singh